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THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #37  7-19-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

With the sudden multi-day rise after the futures proved a bullish pivot - the market jerk-back today was a clear possibility, as mentioned in the group. The market makers will make a bullish transition difficult. The 6K bitcoin level needs to hold for the sake of anyone who is into crypto, including the market makers - but faking everyone out and spooling the slack is how this works. I know some people want to see a hard number called, but for me, hard numbers come from percentage chances, for both directions:

I feel the scales have begun to tip --- that we are at 60% chance of rise and growing, and maybe 45% chance of a bear drop to mess with everyone. YES, my percentages add up to more than 100, but this is the way I gauge momentum - weighing the bull-side and the bear-side. It is an estimation of all current news, T.A., market growth, and especially timing.
 
While a plunge below 6K could be damaging, with years of T.A. study, one thing I've learned is to not make a hard bet against a major support level, but when that support level breaks, it often gushes. Great support creates big bounces, just like you have all seen the last few months. Rolling the dice can often be an awkward drink of water - especially if your goal is zero loss, and a platform for total gain.
drink

CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Stellar (XLM):  Stellar has put themselves back into the news.   Many have suspected them a sleeping giant, and after the Coinbase consideration, many others are starting to believe.

Binance (BNB):  Coin burn slated for the 31st!

TrueUSD (TUSD) :  The alternate tether has enough track record.. roughly 4 months, as a totally level $1 asset - if they maintain transparency as they outlined, they will content for a solid place to park funds in bumpy markets.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

As we wait on the edge of our seats for the bull to run to being, one thing to consider is preparing an in-point to flip your hedge.  As we spoke briefly about setting aside a small portion for new Shorters to set up a very low leverage short - the next move is to flip the short in a leveraged long position when the market looks sure to rise.

While leverage can be a terrible thing to the uninitiated, if liquidation points are carefully planned and monitored - then you can create deeper value to your Bitcoin holds.  Bitcoin simply moves in smaller percentages, so 3x leverage can triple the outcome.

Keeping a rolling hedge active in the market means you can counteract some damage, but also, it makes an investor stare more intently at the market as time passes on.

Learning to manage leverage is an essential tool.   Walking in fool-hardy will devour an account, but knowing how things work can lead an investor to a clear understanding.  Then, when the magic moment hits, when a swift market movement is guaranteed to follow - you can drop in with leverage and capitalize far, far stronger than normal.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #36  7-16-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

Two days until futures expire, with a second set of futures expiring just 9 days after. It looks like the market created support after two days of record low volume for the last 8 months. As the volume dwindled we saw split days, forced by market makers who found it hard to make a buck when new money ceased to flow in...

We are at a nice T.A. point to create a firm support and launch a bull run, but for that to happen we need trusting, excited parties.  We also need market makers to stop pulling the rug out every time the market starts to build.  While I actually love this current point, I am unsure we have all the elements to launch a forceful bull run.  That kind of skepticism is good to avoid bull traps, but late entry can leave a lot of money on the table.
That bull run FOMO can crush investors, since it's the same mentality that leads to buying successive lows that just keep dropping.  It's essential to hold a system of checks and balances at every turn - after-all that's the way traders and market makers play the game.

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CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

0x (ZRX):  Recent consideration for Coinbase listing has launched this crypto, along with a handful of others into the spotlight. 0x was almost totally forgotten from the top 100, but has now lodged itself into the mainstream light again, quite deeply.

Kucoin (KCS):  Recent decisions by Kucoin to share KCS instead of a spread of every coin they list will keep this coin hot for a while.

Monaco (MCO) :  This pick from weeks ago continues to show greater suspension of falling as the market remained indecisive.  Even as TenX mysteriously rises the ranks today, Monaco just seems to draw more interest.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

Who isn't waiting for the next bull run to start?  The last two days have shown us green, but all watchers saw this happen just days before.  The market tosses and turns, and we  have not seen a full green week in quite some time.  We are at a crossroads to determine when the bottom has been found.

Entering in, or staging more funds, has much to do with measuring your situation.  If your desire is to not lose, then it requires some sidelining when the green begins to show.  If your desire is to make gains in the medium term, then entry that possibly leads to short term losses is part of the game.

To each-thier-own in situations like this.  It's a matter of choice and risk-reward calculations or sensation.  There will come a point when the market has to grow - how you decide to time that position will filter through your own sensations and intuitive nature.  In a market that can take a 20-30% bite out of you in a single day or two... there's reason to be wary and to precede with caution.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #35  7-11-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

Rocky moment - the last dump happened during the Asian watch, but the Americans refuse to pump the market, and the Asians are matching that refusal.  Both sides of the globe are gridlocked... We stand at such a pivotal point, where T.A. screams for support to cause an upward thrust, but a weary market is lost to make it happen.

We have enough news to merit a positive forward movement for crypto, yet the entire array is being haggled by intra-day traders.  Where will new money come from?  Anyone who can halfway read a chart would be wary - that includes the entire stock market.  However we are nearing enough spooling of support that if we catch above $6K bitcoin and stay put, investors might actually plug back in.
Everyone is waiting for a fallout because that's 80% of what has occurred the last three months, going on half a year.
ETF news and a lack of bad news champions the moment, while a parade of thousands of new questionable crypto further crowds the market, and shadows the environment.

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CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Nuls (NULS):  Mainnet release scheduled for tomorrow (7-12-2018)

Kucoin (KCS):  beginning to levetate in shoddy market conditions

Basic Attention (BAT) :  An upward moving flag formation shows some resilience in indecision.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

We are at a true market watch moment.  One has to be prepared for both outcomes, we've reached that pivot point where the market could either surge or fall spectacularly.  T.A.-wise that's where we are.  It can be incredibly difficult to choose a direction when a moment of high volatility seems inevitable.
Some people are plugged in an plan to wait and see.  Others have stepped out and are waiting for the perfect opportunity to step back in.
The Futures market appears to be showing dramatically low volume, just like with BTC and all crypto.  We are in a doldrums moment that could split or surge - but the problem is, it's very hard to surge without super interested parties.  For that reason, the $6k support level is in the shade.
We are at a measurable place that says we want to go up - but where are the buyers?  Hey, they are pounding the market both ways - that's why caution is necessary.  Many of the instigators are actually praying for a crash cycle.  Large and deep investors are finding ways to enter the business of crypto, rather than play the charts.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #34  7-8-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

The market makers must have found seriously reduced profit in jamming the market back and forth - that's the secret to low volume...  we are seeing some nice chop, as the market fill began to sway into mixed green and red days.

On the Bitcoin chart, this shows as a slowly rising ledge which can create an atmosphere of peace, or walk us towards a market decision.  Volume is still incredibly low.  It's something to be cautious of.  Market makers are forced into a narrower bandwidth of profits, and they can try to horse us one way or the other.
Sometimes its when things look the most peaceful, and when a decision is forced upon the market that the wildest action can begin to happen.  We are clearly overdue for a directional choice, however, the market has had so long to settle, that a level plane is partially due as well.  There is a lot of value in not allowing the market prices to crush any further.

TTIP-Trade-Obstacle

CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Nuls (NULS):  Mainnet release scheduled in 4 days (7-12-2018)

Cobinhood (COB):  Not the best chart - but something to watch - Cobinhood is scheduled to enable margin trading (leverage?) on their exchange which might increase volume.

Basic Attention (BAT) :  An upward moving flag formation shows some resilience in indecision.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

What forward directions should be expected?  Really, we are in another wildcard spot.  It will take movers with a lot of money to force us upward with little natural volume.  The same is true for any further sell pressure.  When we reach the low FOMO, sellers can be made to feel sheepish.

I'm prepared for all three outcomes - because they are all three possible.  We could ride out on an extended accumulation period.  We could also begin to surge for a beginning of a bull trend - however, we still dangle on the critical $6K bitcoin price which is actually lower than the real support level.
A modicum of caution never hurts, and that's where we are - however, if volume picks up, and price keeps moving up, then bull we go.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #33  7-5-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

Finally, the market is showing some indecision, ceasing to follow single trend pump and dumps, this is a primary sign for a trend pause, which CAN be the first stage for a new trend. As mentioned before, volume spikes that lead to rises instead of falls are a great indication of a floor being found. If we really consider what is happening in the market today, and the motives of the market makers, then we see the potential for a pivotal point:

On one hand, if we break below BTC $6000, there would be little prevention of a gush - however - if that were to occur the perception of crypto would be... badly damaged for an additional couple months. If the whales move into indecision - and begin to mix up their algo bots - then we have days like today and yesterday: mixed green and red, a feature painfully missing from the market for most of the last 5 months...

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CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Ethos (Ethos):  Wallet finally released, now we need to see how the token works to pump itself.

Zilliqa (Zil):  Zilliqa continues to show high percentage raises among most other crypto.  Also, low deflation in market drops.

Matrix A.I. :  A.I. aimed directly at improving it's own blockchain - released in February, this crypto has yet to see a bull run, yet has a decent chart, and nice response to market distress.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

We've been dealing with an extreme market for quite a while - a market driven almost fully by triggered algo-bots pushing billions in and out.  A crash of unknown extension means people are making money on both sides of the market.  When that stops, and when whales feel comfortable parking their money in investments for an extended period of time - then we have a bull run. 

In a shaken market, which is what we have, speculators like you and me have to rely on major pivot points and re-act accordingly.  This $6,000 BTC price floor is that point.  We want to catch the bull side, or find the reversal without taking pure damage.
The key word is "decide", make choices, try to feel out the next stage of the market.  If you can beat others to that realization, just by a couple hours - then you become a great trader-investor.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #32  7-1-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

After a limping bounce off BTC $6,000 and a 24 hour green cycle, it turns out the June 30th mega news day had plenty of reasons to turn.  The biggest high ranking winners of the week were: Selfkey, Cortex, Minex, Power Ledger, TenX, Bluzelle, Monaco, and Steem.  While some of these could have been spot-picked, the rest would have likely been acquired by pure random assignment.  The market is responding "in whole" which is the way algo whales pump the whole market at the same time.  Selfkey had a nice surge before their Binance listing which indeed gave it a good moon.  Selfkey is a digital identity management system, which is a part of the future of crypto, but not my favorite part.  As we've watched Civic rise and disappear for quite some time, it's a niche of great liability.  But cheers to those who capitalized.

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CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Binance (BNB):  Binance coin has continued to show resilience in turbulent market conditions.

Pundi X (NPXS):  Multi-crypto terminals and payment solutions can wipe out a half dozen other crypto.  Thier aggressive roll out program is matched by none.

Selfkey :  in terrible market conditions, they managed to be a weekly high ranking winner.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

Market turns create decision points for every trader.  It can be hard to separate trend reversals from momentary re-sets of an ongoing trend.  Much related coping has to do with hitting a rhythm with the limited possible patterns.  When FOMO hits, well in crypto, it can still pay off, but that necessitates an actual bull trend.

It will be worth keeping an eye on what crypto rises on the next green day.  As today is already mostly red, it will require seeing the bedrock crypto begin to surge, in good timing with actual news, that the market will show signs of health again.  The surge this week was clearly almost fully driven by algo whales filling the market.

If we see more big red soon, and solid crypto can't lift off, then more correction is coming. But if prices refuse to drop, then we could have a nice green wave to walk into.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT #31  6-29-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

Tommorrow, June 30th has so much huge news for specific crypto, I'm not even bothering to put it on the calendar.  Yet, the market activity is swallowing all of it. That's an important note to consider for market direction on specific crypto you are following! Many who watch the market in detail are likely wondering when the futures contracts will play in favor of a rise, instead of pushing new falls. It will take the favor of daytraders to first mark the change in the market. The futures traders are keying off daytraders first, expected market tides second, and best money plays as their primary goal. I wouldn't expect a rapid turnaround of any kind, and all reversals will be treated in question. We do not have the same rate of Tether printing going on to jack the price of BTC. We don't have the same rate of crypto newbies to randomly pump the market.  It's a new world.

Shortmarket-Club

CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Binance (BNB):  Binance coin has continued to show resilience in turbulent market conditions.

Pundi X (NPXS):  Multi-crypto terminals and payment solutions can wipe out a half dozen other crypto.  Thier aggressive roll out program is matched by none.

Zilliqa (ZIL):  Zilliqa is hitting roadmap goals steadily - while Icon continues to show fading deadlines.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

There is a huge gap between the expected moves of the market, and the reality of the new situation. This is leading to a misfiring of buy-ins on the drops. I know many have been getting rolled trying to buy the new lows - it's part of the game. When the market bleeds incessantly, I step out, or carefully plan shorts. Some people are making fortunes on shorts, no differently than a bull run. Now is a good time for the last arrivers to learn about shorting, because the market includes that facet, forever hereafter. If you've never shorted, I urge anyone to take a couple days, load a short-able exchange with a little crypto, place a short position and watch and learn. You don't learn until you do, and a new skill is worth a ton. The first major skill is learning when to get out, the skill to follow is learning how to make money in a bear market.

THE CRYPTO GAZER REPORT   #30 6-26-2018

MARKET DRIVERS:

This is what I call a bear stall. It's like the engine on the plane has stopped and no one really knows what to do. The bulls feel we can glide to safety, even though flight is not possible. The bears feel the plane will crash. We are at the final point. Bear view: 70% chance we are going down further - due to instability and immediate throw backs on the rises. Bull view: 35% chance of a check raise - a simple double day rise to give closure. It will take that double day raise to break the curse, so half the globe must risk deep loss, by getting gamed by the other half - that is the two day doorway that must be passed through.

CRYPTO OF INTEREST :

Binance (BNB):  Binance coin has continued to show resilience in turbulent market conditions.

Pundi X (NPXS):  Multi-crypto terminals and payment solutions can wipe out a half dozen other crypto.  Thier aggressive roll out program is matched by none.

Zilliqa (ZIL):  Zilliqa is hitting roadmap goals steadily - while Icon continues to show fading deadlines.

BIRDS EYE VIEW :

This is a pivotal month to recognize the flaws in the current social paradigm.  Many social media 'experts' threw themselves in the wood chipper with market direction calls that simply did not happen.  Market watch is the most important element in the CRYPTO MARKET 2.0 - a whole new world where high tech stock market vultures roll out a slews of sophisticated tools to game loyal fans of crypto.  Gone are the days of not having to watch your back.  Learning to turn trades - at the very least - in quarterly market moves will be the difference between vast profits and utter torture.

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